Grampians region expected to see rise in COVID cases amid new Omicron subvariant

It comes on the heels of leaked modelling showing COVID-19 cases could more than double in New South Wales in coming weeks, with Victorian health minister Martin Foley confirming on Friday Victoria would likely follow suit.

The Omicron subvariant - BA.2 - is around one and half times more infectious than Omicron and, according to two recent studies, could be as deadly as Delta, though that conclusion is contested by other studies.

Leading epidemiologist Nancy Baxter, who heads the school of population and global health at the University of Melbourne, said the Omicron subvariant posed a particular threat to any person yet to receive their third vaccine dose.

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"We know if you've only had one or two doses and not the booster, your chances of transmission with the original Omicron were very high, so they're going to be higher again with BA.2," Professor Baxter said

"So, you need your booster to protect against getting [BA.2], but also to protect against serious disease, hospitalisation and death.

"We also know some people will get long COVID from [BA.2] - we don't know how many, but you don't want to be one of those people."

A comprehensive study released last week showed that even mild cases of COVID-19 can shrink the size of the brain, giving rise to cognitive decline equivalent to a decade of normal ageing.

A complementary study has also raised the possibility COVID-19 could accelerate or trigger early onset of other neurological disorders, including Alzheimer's or Parkinson's diseases.

Echoing Professor Baxter's remarks, Aaron Bloch - an infectious disease specialist with the Grampians Public Health Unit - said it was important the community guarded against pandemic complacency and took steps known to reduce the risk of transmission, including vaccination.

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"There are some important actions that can be taken to protect each other, keep the community safe and lessen the pressure on our hospital system," Dr Bloch said.

"Third dose vaccinations are important, as is ensuring our children are fully vaccinated.

"We need to get our region's rate up to 95 per cent triple vaccinated as quickly as possible."

In Horsham, third-dose vaccination rates sit at 60 to 65 per cent of the population, below other areas such as Stawell, Ballarat or Bendigo, which all have over 70 per cent coverage - but on par with the state average of 62 per cent.

Similarly, Horsham's population aged five to 11 has a first dose vaccination rate of 55 to 60 per cent, about on par with the state's average of 56 per cent.

But Dr Bloch said the community shouldn't rely on vaccination as its only line of defence against the new strain.

"Another great way to lessen your chances of contracting or passing on COVID is to wear masks when in a setting where social distancing is difficult or you may be interacting closely with many people," he said.

"We also ask the community to continue testing if you're suffering from any symptoms, and [to] stay at home if you're unwell."

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